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THE ECONOMIST CORNER
MAY 27, 2022
BoC rate decision preview: Don't pause until you see the whites of their eyes
By: TD Securities
We expect the Bank of Canada to deliver a 50bp hike in June, lifting the overnight rate to 1.50%. This would mark the second consecutive 50bp move from the BoC, and we look for an additional 50bp move in July.
JULY 12, 2022
July BoC Announcement: Go Big or Go Home
By: TD Securities
There is not much scope for nuance at the upcoming BoC meeting, where we look for a 75bp rate hike, pushing the policy rate to 2.25%. Policy is still accommodative, and the BoC has repeatedly stated that the economy is in excess demand.
SEPTEMBER 6, 2022
September BoC Preview: Harder Tests Still to Come
By: TD Securities
The economic situation clearly calls for restrictive policy rates, and we see a clear path for the BoC to hike by 75bps in September. We expect the pace of tightening to slow in October however, which may imply some moderation in the Bank's forward-looking language in the September communique.
OCTOBER 25, 2022
October BoC Preview: Throw Caution to the Wind
By: TD Securities
We look for a more aggressive 75bp hike in October. Governor Macklem has already been in the press twice this month, delivering an unambiguously hawkish message. The Governor argued that the Bank did not have enough data in hand to consider a more finely balanced approach to monetary policy in his speech on October 6th. And on the sidelines of the October IMF meetings the Governor pre-emptively downplayed the importance of the most recent CPI figures, stating that the economy was clearly in excess demand regardless of the September inflation print. Most tellingly, the Governor stated that he believed that undertightening was a larger danger than overtightening, which supports the idea the Bank's plan here is to err on the side of too much tightening.
DECEMBER 6, 2022
December BoC Preview: Heads, We're Slowing Now. Tails, We're Slowing
By: TD Securities
We look for a 25bp rate hike at the December BoC meeting, with the statement signaling further rate hikes to come. That said, the announcement feels exceptionally uncertain, a fitting end to a year that has been full of surprises. The Bank of Canada shifted to a more balanced communications strategy over the last month, in stark contrast to the fire and brimstone inflation-fighting bluster of the summer and early fall. Governor Macklem has acknowledged that the Bank is getting closer to the end of its tightening cycle, which implies a slower pace of hikes at some point in the next few meetings. The market is pricing this as something close to a coin toss, the analyst community is divided, and we wouldn't be surprised by either a 25 or 50bp move. We look at the arguments for both.
JUNE 5, 2023
June BoC Preview: It's Starting to Feel a Bit Hikey
By: TD Securities
This month's Bank of Canada's meeting is coming up fast and furious, and our strategists are pulling all the threads together in anticipation of what's next: the potential for the Bank to lift the overnight rate by 25bp in both June and July.